Daniel L. Thornton
Biography
Daniel L. Thornton was a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1981-2014 and President of D.L. Thornton Economics LLC from 2014-2024.
Additionally, he was an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute from 2014-2024, an adjunct faculty member at the Institut d´Economie Scientifique et de Gestion de Lille from 2014-2024, and a senior research fellow at Linndenwood University’s Hammond Institute for Free Enterprise from 2018-2024.
Dr. Thornton published over 100 articles in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review and scholarly journals such as the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Review of Financial Studies, and the Journal of Financial Economics. He was ranked in the top 3% of economists worldwide by Research Papers in Economics, RePEc.
He was the author of two blogs, Common Sense Economics, and Common Sense Economics, Perspectives.
Interview
Daniel L. Thornton On The Federal Reserve’s Response To The Collapse of Lehman Brothers, May 21, 2024
Publications
Research
Greenspan's Connundrum and The Fed's Affect on Long-Term Yields
The Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing August 20, 2016
Understanding the Predictability of Excess Returns
Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don't)
The Fed's Response to the Financial Crisis What It Did and What It Should Have Done
Education
PhD Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia
MS Economics, Arizona State University
BA Economics, Parsons College
Institutions
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Cato Institute
Fields
Monetary Economics
Macroeconomics
When Did the FOMC Begin Targeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us
The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?
MP Mischief and the Credit Trap
Open Market Operations and the Funds Rate
Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis
The Effect of Underreporting on LIBOR Rates
The Effectiveness of QE: An Assessment of the Event Study Evidence
Monetary Policy Transparency: Transparent About What?
A Note on the Expectations Hypothesis at the Founding of the Fed
Identifying the Liquidity Effect at the Daily Frequency
Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox
The Financial Crisis What Caused It and When and Why It Ended
Further Evidence on Greenspan's Conundrum
Common Sense Economics
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Does Aggregate Supply Exist? Should We Care?
Money Demand in Financially Sophisticated Economies
Common Sense Economics, Perspectives
Untangling Causes from Effects of the Financial Crisis
Structure Matters in Government
What Will Happen if Greece Exits the Euro?
The Fed's Lack of Confidence in the Economy's Healing Powers
Why Has Economic Growth Slowed In China?
The Rain Man and the Fed's Ability to Control Interest Rates
The Link Between Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates or Inflation
Is the Fed Monetizing the Debt?
What's Positive About Negative Interest Rates?
Why the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy Failed
The Fed's Monetary Policy: Excess Reserves, and Excessive Risk Taking
Will the Fed Raise Rates Before the Election?
Why Larry Summers is Wrong About Slow Growth
Is the Fed Waking Up to Reality?
Economic Theory and the BREXIT Question
Another Unintended Consequence of QE
The Fed Needs to Normalize Now
Dissecting Yellen’s Jackson Hole Speech
Dissecting Yellen’s Speech A Clarification
The Feds Impending Inflation Disaster?
The Feds Impending Inflation Disaster?: A Clairification
Economic Growth: Does the Party of the President Matter?
First page 2017.06 Here's The Only Way to Prevent Too Big To Fail
First page 2017.07 Here's The Only Way to Prevent Too Big To Fail
Why We Need to End Too Big to Fail
Policymakers Don't Understand the Money Supply Process
Its Time to Change the Monetary Policy Debate
The Limits of Monetary Policy Why Interest Rates Don't Matter
The Limits of Monetary Policy Can the Fed Affect Interest Rates?
The Limits of Monetary Policy Can the Fed Affect Output Growth?
The Limits of Monetary Policy Things the Fed Cannot or Should Not Do
What's All The Fuss about Bitcoin?
Markets Needn't Panic About Normalization
QE Was Effective: Show Me Your Evidence
How and Why the Fed Stumbled into QE
The Myth of Potential Output Revisited
Congress Needs to Order the Fed to Stop Interest Rate Targeting
The Folly of Negative Nominal Interest Rates
Common Sense Reasons Interest Rates Don't Matter For Policy
The Usefulness of Models for Economic Policy
The Fed's 3.9% Unemployment Rate
r-Star The Unnatural Natural Rate of Interest
The Effect of the Fed's Policy on Output and Employment
Congress Need to End the Charade and Fix Social Security
Will the FOMC Adopt Nominal GDP Targeting?
Understanding the Accelerating Deficit Debt Problem
The Insanity of Government-Fianced Mortgages
In Defense of Stephen Moores Nomination
Pulling Back the Curtain on the Feds Mystique
The Feds Monetary Policy Metamorphoses Past and Present
A Question Policymakers Need to Answer
The Fed's Rate Cut was a Mistake
The Politicalization of the Fed and How to DePoliticalize It
Protecting the Feds Independence Dudleys Way
The Politicalization of the Fed Revisited
What Really Fuels Economic Growth
Alan Blinder's Odd Monetary Policy Recommendation
The Fed Has Surrendered Its Independence
Economic Growth 2.3% I Told You So!
Again, Its Important to Get It Right
On the Feds Ability to Affect Interest Rates
The Feds Monetary Policy Reaches a New Low
The Government Bailout What It Did and What It Should Have Done
Hoarding TP Is More Rational Than You Think
Monetary Policy What I Believe and Why I Believe It
Requiem for Fed Independence A Clarification
Modern Monetary Theory and the Impending Financial Crisis
Alan S. Blinder's Scarlett O'Hara Approach to the National Debt Problem
The Feds Complicity in the Debt Problem
WSJ - If Inflation Starts, It will Be Hard to Corral, June 8, 2020
The Economics of Making Wearing a Mask a Requirement
Reasons to Question the Effectiveness of the Feds Interest Rate Policies
Three Monetary Policy Questions My Answers
OpEd Letter Financial Times, August 6, 2020
Economic Growth Whats Politics Got to Do with It
The Feds Bizarre New Longer-Run Monetary Strategy
The Mystique of the All-Powerful Fed
Trumps Economic Policies Unsuccessful When Evaluated Correctly
Why Were the Pollsters So Wrong?
WSJ Letter re Republican Party
Requiem for Fed Independence No. 25
Can The Fed Control Long Term Rates What the Facts and Theory Tell Us
The US Deficit History - Just the Facts
The US Deficit History - Just the Facts Revisited
The Minimum Wage Don't Ignore the Science
QEs Effect on Long Term Rates Its Not Working and Never Has
The Feds Long Term Bond Buying Playing with Fire
The Fed Has the Tools to Prevent Inflation. What Tools?
The Problem With the Fed: Too Much Groupthink
Will the Fed Create a Digital Dollar?
Economic Growth Monetary and Fiscal Policy Can't Help
The Effectiveness of the Feds QE Policy
Hanke and Hanlon's Nonsense Explanation for Inflation
Some Thoughts About Inflation and the Feds Ability to Control It
Its Time the Fed Stops Using Core Inflation
Core Versus Headline Inflation Again
My Favorite Chart Revisited A Pyschics Dream
The Effect of the Feds Interest Rate Hikes on Mortgage Rates
What Does the Current Inflation Tell Us About Inflation Targeting
The Effects of Inflation are Permanent The Optimal Rate of Inflation Is Zero
More Evidence the Fed Doesn't Affect Mortgage Rates
A Litmus Test of Fed Independence
Core versus Headline Inflation Revisited
The Feds Financial Stability Report Card
Debt Fact That Everyone Should Know
President Biden's Deficit Reduction Plan Won't Work
The Effect of Changes in the Fed's Target on Interest Rates
The Effect of the Fed's Target on Interest Rates A Clarification
Will the Inflation Rate Increase?
A Higher Inflation Target Is a Tired Old Idea
Monetary Policy Makers and Advisors Need to Get Real
Its Time the Fed Stopped Paying Banks Interest to Hold Reserves
A Graph that Mimics the Governments Disastrous Policies Since 1990
When Will the Fed Start Reducing its Rate?
Higher Capital Requirements Wont Prevent a Financial Crisis
Government Economists and Central Bankers Slept Through Econ 101
The Feds Response to Inflation Was Anything But Aggressive
The Reason the Fed Follows the Market
What Is the Fed's Monetary Policy?
The Financial Crisis and Unconventional Monetary Policy:
“The Efficacy of the FOMC’s Zero Interest Rate Policy.
” http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-09-04.pdf“The Downside of Quantitative Easing.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1034.pdf“Can the FOMC Increase the Funds Rate Without Reducing Reserves?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1028.pdf“Housing and the "R" Word.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/08/ES0805.pdf“Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-02-03.pdf“The Effect of the Fed’s Purchases of Long-Term Treasuries on the Yield Curve.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0925.pdf“What Caused Long-Term Rates to Rise?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0932.pdf“Why is Output Growth So Slow?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/13/ES_4_2013-01-24.pdf“Why Is Employment Growth So Low?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1137.pdf“Is the FOMC’s Policy Inflating Asset Prices?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1118.pdf“Has QE Been Effective?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/10050“Is the FOMC’s Unemployment Rate Threshold a Good Idea?"
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9604“A Perspective on Possible Fed Exit Strategies.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9873“Verbal Guidance and the Efficacy of Forward Guidance.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9473“Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth, Employment, or Inflation?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1029.pdf“Would Quantitative Easing Sooner Have Tempered the Financial Crisis and Economic Recession?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0937.pdf“Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0930.pdf"Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound"
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/8668
The Fed’s Dual Mandate:
“The Case for ‘Inflation First’ Monetary Policy.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0947.pdf“What Does the Change in the FOMC’s Statement of Objectives Mean?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1101.pdf“The Dual Mandate: Has the Fed Changed Its Objective? A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/12/03/117-134Thornton.pdf
Monetary Policy:
“The Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Tale from Two Decades.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-07-12.pdf“Measure for Measure: Headline versus Core Inflation.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/07/ES0721.pdf“The Federal Funds and Long-Term Rates.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/07/ES0710.pdf“The Fed’s Inflation Objective.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/06/ES0615.pdf“Greenspan’s Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/06/ES0601.pdf“The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/05/ES0521.pdf“The FOMC’s “Considerable Period.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/04/ES0403.pdf“Making Monetary Policy More Transparent.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/04/ES0401.pdf“Alternative Policy Weapons?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/03/ES0318.pdf“Predictability and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/03/ES0315.pdf“How Effective Is Monetary Policy?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/03/ES0301.pdf
Miscellaneous:
“Are Virtual “Currencies” Likely to Succeed?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/10092“What the Libor-OIS Spread Says,”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0924.pdf“Monetizing the Debt.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1014.pdf“Monetizing the Debt.” A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/84/12/Monetizing_Dec1984.pdf“A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance.” A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/01/McDonald.pdf“Walter Bagehot, the Discount Window, and TAF.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/08/ES0827.pdf“Is Nominal GDP Targeting a Rule Policymakers Could Accept?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9942“Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/05/ES0512.pdf“Public Officials and Job Creation.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/04/ES0422.pdf“Withering Dissents.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/02/ES0218.pdf
The Federal Debt and Deficits:
“The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1120.pdf“The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1121.pdf“Tax Rates and Revenue Since the 1970s.”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1124.pdf“How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?” A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/12/01/21-40Kliesen.pdf
Fiscal Policy:
“Personal Saving and Economic Growth,”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0946.pdf“Does the Economy Need More Spending Now?”
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/13/ES_24_2013-08-20.pdf
Link to all of Dr. Thornton’s Federal Reserve Publications: