Daniel L. Thornton


Biography

Daniel L. Thornton was a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1981-2014 and President of D.L. Thornton Economics LLC from 2014-2024.

Additionally, he was an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute from 2014-2024, an adjunct faculty member at the Institut d´Economie Scientifique et de Gestion de Lille from 2014-2024, and a senior research fellow at Linndenwood University’s Hammond Institute for Free Enterprise from 2018-2024.

Dr. Thornton published over 100 articles in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review and scholarly journals such as the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Review of Financial Studies, and the Journal of Financial Economics. He was ranked in the top 3% of economists worldwide by Research Papers in Economics, RePEc.

He was the author of two blogs, Common Sense Economics, and Common Sense Economics, Perspectives.



Education

PhD Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia

MS Economics, Arizona State University

BA Economics, Parsons College

Institutions

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Cato Institute

Fields

Monetary Economics

Macroeconomics


When Did the FOMC Begin Targeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us

Federal Funds Rate Prediction

The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?

MP Mischief and the Credit Trap

Open Market Operations and the Funds Rate

Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis

The Effect of Underreporting on LIBOR Rates

Money in a Theory of Exchange

The Effectiveness of QE: An Assessment of the Event Study Evidence

Monetary Policy Transparency: Transparent About What?

Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Anomalies when the Short-Term Rate is the Federal Funds Rate

A Note on the Expectations Hypothesis at the Founding of the Fed

Identifying the Liquidity Effect at the Daily Frequency

Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox

The Financial Crisis What Caused It and When and Why It Ended

Further Evidence on Greenspan's Conundrum

Common Sense Economics

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Does Aggregate Supply Exist? Should We Care?

Money Demand in Financially Sophisticated Economies

Common Sense Economics, Perspectives

Untangling Causes from Effects of the Financial Crisis

Renewing America’s Prosperity

Conundrum? Again?

Structure Matters in Government

What Will Happen if Greece Exits the Euro?

The Fed's Lack of Confidence in the Economy's Healing Powers

Why Has Economic Growth Slowed In China?

Monetary Policy Insanity

The Rain Man and the Fed's Ability to Control Interest Rates

The Link Between Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates or Inflation

Is the Fed Monetizing the Debt?

What's Positive About Negative Interest Rates?

Why the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy Failed

The Fed's Monetary Policy:  Excess Reserves, and Excessive Risk Taking

My Scary Graph

Will the Fed Raise Rates Before the Election?

 Why Larry Summers is Wrong About Slow Growth

Is the Fed Waking Up to Reality?

My Scary Graph Revisited

Economic Theory and the BREXIT Question

Another Unintended Consequence of QE

The Fed Needs to Normalize Now

 Economic Growth Part 1

 Dissecting Yellen’s Jackson Hole Speech

Dissecting Yellen’s Speech A Clarification

Fixing Social Security

The Feds Impending Inflation Disaster?

The Feds Impending Inflation Disaster?:  A Clairification

Economic Growth: Does the Party of the President Matter?

Fixing a Bad System

The Fed Who Played With Fire

First page 2017.06 Here's The Only Way to Prevent Too Big To Fail

First page 2017.07 Here's The Only Way to Prevent Too Big To Fail

Why We Need to End Too Big to Fail

Policymakers Don't Understand the Money Supply Process

Its Time to Change the Monetary Policy Debate

The Limits of Monetary Policy Why Interest Rates Don't Matter

The Limits of Monetary Policy Can the Fed Affect Interest Rates?

The Limits of Monetary Policy Can the Fed Affect Output Growth?

The Limits of Monetary Policy Things the Fed Cannot or Should Not Do

What's All The Fuss about Bitcoin?

Markets Needn't Panic About Normalization

QE Was Effective: Show Me Your Evidence

How and Why the Fed Stumbled into QE

The Myth of Potential Output

The Myth of Potential Output Revisited

Congress Needs to Order the Fed to Stop Interest Rate Targeting

The Folly of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

Common Sense Reasons Interest Rates Don't Matter For Policy

The Usefulness of Models for Economic Policy

The Fed's 3.9% Unemployment Rate

r-Star The Unnatural Natural Rate of Interest

The Effect of the Fed's Policy on Output and Employment

Congress Need to End the Charade and Fix Social Security

Where is r-Star?

What Monetary Policy Can Do

Will the FOMC Adopt Nominal GDP Targeting?

Its Important to Get It Right

Understanding the Accelerating Deficit Debt Problem

The Insanity of Government-Fianced Mortgages

In Defense of Stephen Moores Nomination

Pulling Back the Curtain on the Feds Mystique

The Feds Monetary Policy Metamorphoses Past and Present

Is There a Phillips Curve?

A Question Policymakers Need to Answer

The Fed's Rate Cut was a Mistake

The Politicalization of the Fed and How to DePoliticalize It

Protecting the Feds Independence Dudleys Way

The Politicalization of the Fed Revisited

What Really Fuels Economic Growth

Alan Blinder's Odd Monetary Policy Recommendation

The Fed Has Surrendered Its Independence

Plutocracy

Economic Growth 2.3% I Told You So!

Again, Its Important to Get It Right

On the Feds Ability to Affect Interest Rates

The Feds Monetary Policy Reaches a New Low

The Feds Road to Perdition

Help Versus Economic Stimulus

The Government Bailout What It Did and What It Should Have Done

Hoarding TP Is More Rational Than You Think

Monetary Policy What I Believe and Why I Believe It

Requiem for Fed Independence

Requiem for Fed Independence A Clarification

Modern Monetary Theory and the Impending Financial Crisis

Alan S. Blinder's Scarlett O'Hara Approach to the National Debt Problem

The Feds Complicity in the Debt Problem

WSJ - If Inflation Starts, It will Be Hard to Corral, June 8, 2020

The Economics of Making Wearing a Mask a Requirement

Reasons to Question the Effectiveness of the Feds Interest Rate Policies

Three Monetary Policy Questions My Answers

OpEd Letter Financial Times, August 6, 2020

Economic Growth Whats Politics Got to Do with It

The Feds Bizarre New Longer-Run Monetary Strategy

The Mystique of the All-Powerful Fed

Trumps Economic Policies Unsuccessful When Evaluated Correctly

Why Were the Pollsters So Wrong?

WSJ Letter re Republican Party

 Requiem for Fed Independence No. 25

Can The Fed Control Long Term Rates What the Facts and Theory Tell Us

The US Deficit History - Just the Facts

The US Deficit History - Just the Facts Revisited

The Minimum Wage Don't Ignore the Science

QEs Effect on Long Term Rates Its Not Working and Never Has

The Feds Long Term Bond Buying Playing with Fire

The Fed Has the Tools to Prevent Inflation.  What Tools?

The Problem With the Fed: Too Much Groupthink

Will the Fed Create a Digital Dollar?

Do We Need a Digital Dollar?

The Fed's Folly

The Feds Other Folly

Economic Growth Monetary and Fiscal Policy Can't Help

The Effectiveness of the Feds QE Policy

Hanke and Hanlon's Nonsense Explanation for Inflation

Alan Blinder's Epiphany

Some Thoughts About Inflation and the Feds Ability  to Control It

Its Time the Fed Stops Using Core Inflation

Core Versus Headline Inflation Again

My Favorite Chart Revisited A Pyschics Dream

The Effect of the Feds Interest Rate Hikes on Mortgage Rates

What Does the Current Inflation Tell Us About Inflation Targeting

The Effects of Inflation are Permanent The Optimal Rate of Inflation Is Zero

The M2 Inflation Myth

More Evidence the Fed Doesn't Affect Mortgage Rates

A Litmus Test of Fed Independence

Core versus Headline Inflation Revisited

Revealing the Fed

 The Feds Financial Stability Report Card

 Debt Fact That Everyone Should Know

The Anatomy of a Debt Default

President Biden's Deficit Reduction Plan Won't Work

The Effect of Changes in the Fed's Target on Interest Rates

The Effect of the Fed's Target on Interest Rates A Clarification

Will the Inflation Rate Increase?

 A Higher Inflation Target Is a Tired Old Idea

Monetary Policy Makers and Advisors Need to Get Real

Its Time the Fed Stopped Paying Banks Interest to Hold Reserves

 A Graph that Mimics the Governments Disastrous Policies Since 1990

When Will the Fed Start Reducing its Rate?

Higher Capital Requirements Wont Prevent a Financial Crisis

Government Economists and Central Bankers Slept Through Econ 101

The Feds Response to Inflation Was Anything But Aggressive

The Reason the Fed Follows the Market

What Is the Fed's Monetary Policy?

The Financial Crisis and Unconventional Monetary Policy:

  1. “The Efficacy of the FOMC’s Zero Interest Rate Policy.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-09-04.pdf

  2.  “The Downside of Quantitative Easing.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1034.pdf

  3. “Can the FOMC Increase the Funds Rate Without Reducing Reserves?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1028.pdf

  4. “Housing and the "R" Word.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/08/ES0805.pdf

  5. “Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-02-03.pdf

  6. “The Effect of the Fed’s Purchases of Long-Term Treasuries on the Yield Curve.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0925.pdf

  7. “What Caused Long-Term Rates to Rise?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0932.pdf

  8. “Why is Output Growth So Slow?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/13/ES_4_2013-01-24.pdf

  9. “Why Is Employment Growth So Low?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1137.pdf

  10. “Is the FOMC’s Policy Inflating Asset Prices?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1118.pdf

  11. “Has QE Been Effective?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/10050

  12. “Is the FOMC’s Unemployment Rate Threshold a Good Idea?"
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9604

  13. “A Perspective on Possible Fed Exit Strategies.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9873

  14. “Verbal Guidance and the Efficacy of Forward Guidance.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9473

  15. “Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth, Employment, or Inflation?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1029.pdf

  16. “Would Quantitative Easing Sooner Have Tempered the Financial Crisis and Economic Recession?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0937.pdf

  17. “Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0930.pdf

  18. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound"
    https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/8668

The Fed’s Dual Mandate:

  1. “The Case for ‘Inflation First’ Monetary Policy.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0947.pdf

  2. “What Does the Change in the FOMC’s Statement of Objectives Mean?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1101.pdf

  3. “The Dual Mandate: Has the Fed Changed Its Objective? A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/12/03/117-134Thornton.pdf

Monetary Policy:

  1. “The Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Tale from Two Decades.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/12/ES_2012-07-12.pdf

  2. “Measure for Measure: Headline versus Core Inflation.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/07/ES0721.pdf

  3. “The Federal Funds and Long-Term Rates.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/07/ES0710.pdf

  4. “The Fed’s Inflation Objective.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/06/ES0615.pdf

  5. “Greenspan’s Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/06/ES0601.pdf

  6. “The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/05/ES0521.pdf

  7. “The FOMC’s “Considerable Period.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/04/ES0403.pdf

  8. “Making Monetary Policy More Transparent.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/04/ES0401.pdf

  9. “Alternative Policy Weapons?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/03/ES0318.pdf

  10. “Predictability and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/03/ES0315.pdf

  11. “How Effective Is Monetary Policy?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/03/ES0301.pdf

Miscellaneous:

  1. “Are Virtual “Currencies” Likely to Succeed?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/10092

  2. “What the Libor-OIS Spread Says,”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0924.pdf

  3. “Monetizing the Debt.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/10/ES1014.pdf

  4. “Monetizing the Debt.” A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/84/12/Monetizing_Dec1984.pdf

  5. “A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance.” A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/01/McDonald.pdf

  6. “Walter Bagehot, the Discount Window, and TAF.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/08/ES0827.pdf

  7. “Is Nominal GDP Targeting a Rule Policymakers Could Accept?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/9942

  8. “Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/05/ES0512.pdf

  9. “Public Officials and Job Creation.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/04/ES0422.pdf

  10. “Withering Dissents.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/02/ES0218.pdf

The Federal Debt and Deficits:

  1. “The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1120.pdf

  2. “The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1121.pdf

  3. “Tax Rates and Revenue Since the 1970s.”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/11/ES1124.pdf

  4. “How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?” A longer essay for more advanced students on Teacher background. 
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/12/01/21-40Kliesen.pdf

Fiscal Policy:

  1. “Personal Saving and Economic Growth,”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/09/ES0946.pdf

  2. “Does the Economy Need More Spending Now?”
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/13/ES_24_2013-08-20.pdf

Link to all of Dr. Thornton’s Federal Reserve Publications:

  1. https://www.fedinprint.org/authors/daniellthornton.html