Simon Wren-Lewis

Biography

Simon Wren-Lewis is Emeritus Professor of Economics and Fellow of Merton College, University of Oxford.

Simon Wren-Lewis began his career as an economist in H.M.Treasury. In 1981 he moved to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. From 1988-1990, as Head of Macroeconomic Research, he supervised development of the Institute's domestic and world models. In 1990 he became a professor at Strathclyde University, from 1995 he was at Exeter University, and in 2007 moved to the economics department (and Merton college) at Oxford. He has published papers on a wide range of macroeconomic issues in leading academic journals.

His academic work has often had a strong policy focus. In 1989 he published, with colleagues at the National Institute, a study suggesting that an entry rate of 1.95 DM/£ into the ERM was too high. In 2002 he wrote one of the background papers for the Treasury's 2003 assessment of its five economic tests for joining EMU. He was also the principal external advisor to the Bank of England on the development of their core macroeconomic models. A long time advocate of Fiscal Councils, his 2007 proposal was influential in the formation of the UK‘s Office of Budget Responsibility.

He is the author of Mainly Macro, a blog written for both economists and non-economists which covers economics, political economy, the media and politics.

Positions Held

Member of Advisory Panel, Council for Budget Responsibility, Slovakia. 2013-

Member of Panel of Economic Experts, Office for Budget Responsibility. 2011-

Professor of Economics, University of Oxford and Fellow of Merton College. 2007-

External examiner, undergraduates, Bristol University. 2003-2007

Visiting Professor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. 2003-4

H.M.Treasury. 2002-06

Themes Assessment, Economic and Social Research Council. 2000

Consultant to Bank of England. 1999-2004

External examiner, MSc at Warwick University. (Previous external examining for Queen Mary College and Birkbeck MSc). 1999-2002

Committee of Macroeconomics, Money and Finance Research Group. 1998-2011

Member of the Council, Royal Economic Society. 1998-2003

Member of the O.N.S. Academic Panel. 1997-2002

Co-Chairman of Royal Economic Society Conference Committee. 1996-1998.

Professor of Economics, University of Exeter. 1995-2006

Governor of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. 1995-

Member of the Research Grants Board of the Economic and Social Research Council. 1992-1996

Royal Economic Society Conference Programme Committee. 1992-1995.

Executive Committee of Scottish Doctoral Programme. 1990-1995

Chair in Macroeconomic Modelling, University of Strathclyde. 1990-95

Senior Research Fellow, Head of Macroeconomic Research, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, (NIESR). 1988-90

Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. 1986-1997

Senior Research Officer, NIESR. 1986-87

Temporary lecturer at Queen Mary, London and halftime at NIESR. 1985-86

NIESR (fulltime). 1981-85

Economic Advisor, HM Treasury. 1980-81

Senior Economic Assistant, Forecasting Team, HM Treasury. 1976-80

Economic Assistant, HM Treasury. 1974-76

Education

MSc Economics, Birkbeck College, London

MA Economics, University of Cambridge

Institutions

University of Oxford

HM Treasury

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

British Labour Party Economic Advisory Committee

Field

Economics

Topics

Macroeconomics

Exchange Rates

Fiscal Policy

Economic Forecasting

Economic Coverage in the Media

Books

The Lies We Were Told: Politics, Economics, Austerity and Brexit

"Simon Wren-Lewis is the rare economist of both the science and the craft of his field. In this exemplary collection of his blog-writings, Wren-Lewis shows how economic theory, evidence, and sound judgement can be combined to produce good economic policy. Unfortunately, austerity policies, which Wren-Lewis opposed from the beginning, shared none of those features. This is an admirable and accessible guide to where macroeconomic policy in Britain (and elsewhere) has gone wrong in the last decade." -Dani Rodrik, Harvard University

"Since the financial crisis, Simon Wren-Lewis' pioneering blog has been essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the economics, and crucially the politics, of austerity and Brexit." -Jonathan Portes, Kings College London

"We tend to agonise over the new forms of darkness unleashed by the internet. But we must also remember the points of intense light it has also allowed into our intellectual lives. Of those lanterns of enlightenment, few shine brighter than Simon Wren-Lewis' blog". -Ben Chu, Economics Editor of The Independent

Publications

Journal Articles

Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2014), Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Wren-Lewis, S (2013), Macroeconomic Stabilisation in the Eurozone: Lessons from Failure, Global Policy, Vol 4, Issue S1, pp 66-73.

Wren-Lewis, S. (2013) ‘Aggregate fiscal policy under the Labour government, 1997–2010’ Oxford Review of Economic Policy 29 (1): 25-46.

Kirsanova, T and S. Wren-Lewis (2012) ‘Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities’, Economic Journal, Vol. 122, pp 238-264

Wren-Lewis, S (2011) ‘Lessons from failure: fiscal policy, indulgence and ideology’; National Institute Economic Review Vol. 217(1) R31-R46

Calmfors, L and Wren-Lewis, S (2011), What Should Fiscal Councils Do? Economic Policy, Vol. 26(68), pp 551–765

Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2011), Discretionary Policy in a Monetary Union with Sovereign Debt, European Economic Review, vol. 55(1), pp 93-117.

Wren-Lewis, S (2011) “Internal Consistency, Nominal Inertia and the Microfoundation of Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Methodology, Vol. 18(2) pp 129-146

Keogh-Brown, Marcus, Wren-Lewis, Simon, Edmunds, John, Smith, Richard (2010), The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic, Health Economics, vol 19 pp 1345-1360

Wren-Lewis, S (2010), Macroeconomic Policy in light of the credit crunch: the return of counter-cyclical fiscal policy? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 26 pp 71-86

Kirsanova, T, Leith, C, Wren-Lewis, S (2009), Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction: The Current Consensus Assignment in the Light of Recent Developments, Economic Journal, vol 119 pp 482-496

Kirsanova, T, Vines, D and Wren-Lewis, S (2009), Inflation Bias with Dynamic Phillips Curves and Impatient Policy Makers, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 9

Leith, C. and S. Wren-Lewis (2009), Taylor Rules in the Open Economy, European Economic Review, vol 53 pp 971-995

Leith, C. and S. Wren-Lewis (2008), Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 32 pp 2854-2882

Kirsanova, T, Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2007), Optimal Debt Policy, and an Institutional Proposal to help in its Implementation, European Economy Economic Papers No 275, April

Kirsanova, T, Satchi, M, Vines, D and Wren-Lewis, S (2007), Optimal Fiscal Policy Rules in a Monetary Union, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 39 pp 1759-1784

Barrisone, G., Driver, R., Wren-Lewis, S. (2006), Are Our FEERs Justified? International Journal of Money and Finance, vol 25 pp 741-759

Kirsanova, T, Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2006), Should Central Banks Target Consumer Prices or the Exchange Rate? Economic Journal, vol 116 pp 208-231

Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2006), Fiscal Stabilisation Policy and Fiscal Institutions, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 21

Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S. (2006), Compatability Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy under EMU, European Economic Review, vol 50 pp 1529-1556

Leith, C, Warren, P. and Wren-Lewis, S (2003), Fiscal Policy, Interest Rate Shocks and Prices, Economic Modelling, vol 20 pp 361-384

Leith, C. and Wren-Lewis, S. (2001), Interest Rate feedback rules in an open economy with forward looking inflation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 63 pp 209-232

Ireland, J. and S. Wren-Lewis (2000), Inflation Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model, Manchester School, vol 68 pp 92-112

Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (2000), Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules, Economic Journal, vol 110 pp 93-108

Wren-Lewis, S (2000), The Limits to Discretionary Fiscal Stabilisation Policy, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol 16 pp 92-105

Darby, J, Ireland, J, Leith, C and Wren-Lewis, S (1999), Compact: A Rational Expectations, Intertemporal Model of the United Kingdom Economy, Economic Modelling, vol 16 pp 1-52

Driver, R and Wren-Lewis, S. (1999), European Monetary Union, Asymmetric Shocks and Nominal Inertia, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 51 pp 665-688

Ireland, J and Wren-Lewis, S (1998), Exchange Rates, Nominal Inertia and Inflation, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol 45 pp 512-527

Hughes Hallet, A. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1997), Is There Life Outside the ERM? An Evaluation of the Effects of Sterling's Devaluation on the UK Economy, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol 2 pp 199-216

Wren-Lewis, S. (1997), The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime, Economic Journal, vol 107 pp 1157-1168

Wren-Lewis, S., Darby, J., Ireland, J. and Ricchi, O. (1996), The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy:Linking an econometric model with theory, Economic Journal, vol 106 pp 543-559

Hughes Hallet, A. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), Is There Life after the ERM: the UK experience, Economie Internationale, vol 63 pp 31-54

Moghadam, R. and S. Wren-Lewis (1994), Are Wages Forward Looking?, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 46 pp 403-424

Darby, J and Wren-Lewis,S (1993), Is there a Cointegrating Vector for Wages?, Journal of Economic Studies, vol 20 pp 87-115

Westaway, P and S. Wren-Lewis (1993), Is There a Case for the MTFS?, Manchester School, vol 61 pp 227-247

Anderton, R., Pesaran,B and Wren-Lewis,S (1992), Imports, Output and the Demand for Manufactures, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 44 pp 175-186

Darby, J and Wren-Lewis,S (1992), International Trends in Manufacturing Productivity, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol 94 pp 457-477

Ireland, J. and S. Wren-Lewis (1992), Buffer Stock Money and the Company Sector, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 44 pp 209-231

Darby, J. and Wren-Lewis,S (1991), Trends in Manufacturing Labour Productivity, Oxford Economic Papers, vol 43 pp 424-442

Joyce, M and S Wren-Lewis (1991), The Role of the Real Exchange Rate and Capacity Utilisation in Convergence to the NAIRU, Economic Journal, vol 101 pp 497-507

Wren-Lewis, S., P. Westaway, S. Soteri and R. Barrell (1991), Evaluating the UK’s Choice of Entry Rate into the ERM, Manchester School Money Study Group Conference Volume., vol 59 pp 1-22

Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1990), Evaluating the Extended Target Zone proposal for the G3, Economic Journal, vol 100

Westaway, P. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1990), Forecasting government policy: an example of the importance of Time Inconsistency, International Journal of Forecasting, vol 6 pp 401-405

Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Evaluating blueprints for the conduct of international macropolicy, American Economic Review, vol 79 pp 264-269

Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), An Appraisal of Alternative Blueprints for International Policy Cooperation, European Economic Review, vol 0 pp 0-0

Ireland, J. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Terminal dates and the dynamic properties of the National Institute’s domestic macroeconomic model, National Institute Economic Review, vol 128

Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Recent developments in the Institute’s domestic macroeconomic model, National Institute Economic Review, vol 130

Wren-Lewis, S. (1988), Supply, liquidity and credit: a new version of the Institute’s domestic econometric macromodel, National Institute Economic Review, vol 126

Eastwood,F and Wren-Lewis,S (1987), The World Economy, National Institute Economic Review, vol 119

Wren-Lewis, S. (1987), Introducing exchange rate equations into a world econometric model, National Institute Economic Review, vol 119

Hall, S., Henry, S.G.B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Manufacturing stocks and forward looking expectations in the UK, Economica, vol 43

Hall, S., Henry, S.G.B., Payne, J. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Forecasting employment: the role of forward looking behaviour, Journal of Forecasting, vol 22 pp 435-445

Harvey, A., Henry, S.G.B., Peters, S. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Stochastic trends in dynamic regression models: an application to the employment output relationship, Economic Journal, vol 96 pp 975-985

Henry, S.G.B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), Fiscal expansion and unemployment: the labour market, National Institute Economic Review, vol 115

Whittaker, R., Wren-Lewis, S., Blackburn, K. and Currie, D. (1986), Alternative financial policy rules in an open economy with rational and adaptive expectations, Economic Journal, vol 96 pp 680-695

Wren-Lewis, S. (1986), An econometric model of UK manufacturing employment using survey data on, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol 1 pp 297-316

Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), The quantification of survey data on expectations, National Institute Economic Review, vol 113

Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), Private sector earnings and excess demand from 1966 to 1980, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 47 pp 1-18

Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), Omitted variables in equations relating prices to money, Journal of Applied Economics, vol 16 pp 483-496

Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), On nominal government expenditure targets, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol 6 pp 89-95

Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), The roles of expected output and liquidity in explaining recent productivity movements, National Institute Economic Review, vol 108

Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), On the validation of cost push: a comment, Journal of Public Economics, vol 22 pp 123-125

Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), Labour supply and wealth: some macroeconomic policy implications, Manchester School, vol 51 pp 1-15

Wren-Lewis, S. (1982), Intermediate targets and macroeconomic policy, National Institute Economic Review, vol 99

Monographs, Book Chapters, and Other Academic Publications

Wren-Lewis, S (2013), Comparing the Delegation of Monetary and Fiscal Policy, in Restoring Public Debt Sustainability: The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions ed. George Kopits, Oxford University Press.

Wren-Lewis, S (2009), Bringing Undergraduate Macroeconomics Up To Date, in Macroeconomic Theory and macroeconomic Pedagogy, ed(s) Fontana, G and Setterfield, M, Palgrave Macmillan

Wren-Lewis, Simon (2007), Are There Dangers in the Microfoundations Consensus?, in Is There a New Consensus in Macroeconomics?, ed(s) Arestis, Philip, Palgrave Macmillan

Wren-Lewis, S (2004), The needed changes in bilateral equilibrium exchange rates, in Dollar Adjustment, ed(s) Bergsten, CF and Williamson, J, Institute of International Economics

Wren-Lewis, S (2003), Estimates of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Sterling against the Euro, in , ed(s) , H.M.Treasury

Wren-Lewis,S. (2003), The compatability between monetary and fiscal policies under EMU, in Monetary And Fiscal Policies In EMU: Interactions And Coordination, ed(s) Buti, Marco, Cambridge University Press

Wren-Lewis, S (2003), Changing the rules, New Economy, vol 10 pp 73-78

Leith,C and S.Wren-Lewis (2002), The Macroeconomic Impact of Different Speeds of Debt Stabilisation in EMU, in European Macroeconomic Policies after Monetary Unification: Fiscal Policies, Monetary Policies and Labour Markets, ed(s) R. Beetsma,

C. Favero, A. Missale, V.A. Muscatelli, P. Natale and P. Tirelli, Cambridge University Press

Wren-Lewis, S (2001), The Economics of EMU, New Economy, vol 8 pp 3-8

Leith,C and S.Wren-Lewis (2000), How Tough Should Monetary Policy Be if Inflation is Forward Looking?, in Econometric Modelling: Techniques and Applications, ed(s) S.Holly and M.Weale, Cambridge University Press

Wren-Lewis, S (2000), Conflicts between macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis, in Empirical Models and Policy Making: Interaction and Institutions, ed(s) Frank A.G. den Butter and Mary S Morgan, Routledge

Wren-Lewis, S (2000), The decline in macroeconomic modelling, in Public Policy for the 21st Century, ed(s) Neil Fraser and John Hills, The Policy Press

Driver, R and Wren-Lewis, S (1999), FEERs: a sensitivity analysis, in Equilibrium Exchange Rates, ed(s) MacDonald, R and Stein, J, Kluwer

Wren-Lewis,S. (1999), Many Models at the Bank of England, London Business School Economic Outlook, vol 23 pp 17-21

Driver, R and Wren-Lewis, S (1998), Exchange Rates for the Year 2000, in , ed(s), Institute for International Economics, Washington

Wren-Lewis, S. (1996), Avoiding Fiscal Fudge, New Economy, vol 3

Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), The Investment Game, New Economy, vol 2 pp 104-109

Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), Obstacles to EMU, New Economy, vol 2 pp 241-246

Driver, R., Ireland, J., Leith, C. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1995), Why Stop the Recovery, New Economy, vol 2 pp 30-35

Wren-Lewis, S. (1994), The Natural Rate in Empirical Macromodels, in The Natural Rate after Twenty Years, ed(s) R. Cross, Cambridge University Pres

Darby, J., Driver,R, Ireland,J and Wren-Lewis,S (1994), Controlling Credit: The Macroeconomic Implications of Reversing Financial Liberalisation, New Economy, vol 1 pp 95-100

Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis, S (1994), Rules of Engagement, New Economy, vol 1 pp 151-158

Driver, R. and Wren-Lewis,S (1994), Jobs Without Inflation, New Economy, vol 1 pp 28-35

Driver, R., Ireland, J. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1994), Labours Rate Crisis, New Economy, vol 1 pp 218-215

Wren-Lewis, S. (1993), What's so Bad about Borrowing?, New Economy, vol 0 pp 41-51

Darby,J., Ireland,J, Ricchi,O and Wren-Lewis,S (1993), Compact Model Manual Version 1, mimeo, University of Strathclyde

Wren-Lewis, S. (1992), On the Analytical Foundations of Fundamental Equilibrium

Exchange Rates, in Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, ed(s) C. Hargreaves, Edward Elgar

Wren-Lewis, S. (1992), Between the Short and the Long Run: Vintages and the NAIRU, in Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, ed(s) C. Hargreaves, Edward Elgar

Wren-Lewis, S. (1992), Why the Pound Should be Devalued Inside the ERM, Economic Outlook, vol 0 pp 35-38

Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), A comparison of alternative regimes for international macropolicy coordination, in Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management, ed(s) M. Miller, B. Eichengreen, R. Portes, Academic Press

Currie, D. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), Conflict and cooperation in international macroeconomic policy making, in Policymaking with Macroeconomic Models, ed(s) Britton, A., Gower

Wren-Lewis, S. (1989), National Institute Model 11 Technical Manual, mimeo, National Institute

Wren-Lewis, S. (1988), GEM Technical Manual, mimeo, National Institute

Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), Expectations in Keynesian macroeconomic models, in Keynes: Methodological Issues, ed(s) H. Pesaran and T. Lawson, Croom Helm

Henry, S.G.B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), The aggregate labour market in the UK: some experiments with rational expectations models, in Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling, ed(s) P. Malgrange and P. Muet, Blackwell

Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), Employment, Investment and Stockbuilding, in Employment, Output and Inflation, ed(s) Britton, A., Heinemann

Wren-Lewis, S. (ed) (1978), Treasury Macroeconomic Model Technical Manual, mimeo, H.M.Treasury

Funded Research Activities

E.S.R.C. (£178K) New directions in monetary and fiscal policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, joint with Campbell Leith (Glasgow). Three years from November 2008.

E.S.R.C. (£147K) Reinstating Fiscal Policy as a Stabilisation Device, joint with Campbell Leith (Glasgow). Three years from October 2005. Part of the World Economy and Finance Programme. Output rated as 'outstanding' by all four referees for the ESRC.

E.S.R.C. (£50K) Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions, joint with Campbell Leith (Glasgow). Three years from April 2001. Part of the ‘Evolving Macroeconomy’ research programme.

E.S.R.C. (£80K) Innovation, Trade and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate. Two years from October 1997.

E.S.R.C. (£380 K) Development of COMPACT, a medium scale UK econometric model designed for policy analysis. Four years from October 1995.

E.S.R.C. (£225 K) A Proposal for Developing and Exploiting a Medium Scale Econometric Macromodel of the U.K. Economy. Four years from October 1991.

H.M.Treasury (£60K) Estimation of Product and Labour Market equations for the Treasury’s domestic econometric model. October 1990 to December 1992.

Leverhulme Trust (£162K: Ref. F124L) European and G3 Exchange Rate Coordination: Design, Desirability, Consequences. Three years from October 1992, with Andy Hughes Hallett and David Currie (LBS)

Institute of Public Policy Research (£30K) Work on COMPACT for articles in New Economy, 19935

E.S.R.C. Workshop/Seminar series Funding for International Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling Seminar Series 1993 and 1995/6

Refereeing

Cambridge Journal of Economics, Canadian Journal of Economics, Economic Journal, Economica, European Economic Review, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Manchester School, Review of Economic Studies, Scandinavian Journal of Economics.